President Donald Trump will win reelection on November 3rd, and by a larger margin than his 2016 shocker.
That’s the opinion of KMC Radio talk-show host Kevin McCullough, who made the declaration recently on Twitter and during subsequent appearances with Grant Stinchfield on Newsmax TV and on the Eric Metaxas Radio Show.
“The only thing I can find right now in American culture that says Trump is going to lose are these polls that continually come out, the RealClearPolitics average puts them together,” says McCullough, pointing out big media and university polls that many think are missing a wide swath of Trump voters and under-representing Republicans. “I think if you have properly-weighted polls and you don’t talk to registered voters, but you talk to likely voters, you start to get a different story.” Specifically, he points out the massive enthusiasm advantage for President Trump, as well as rapid job expansion as the economy roars back from the pandemic-induced shutdowns.
“Trump voters will literally crawl over glass to get to the polls for President Trump,” Stinchfield agreed. “That’s not the case for Joe Biden. He just happened to be the person Democrats offered up.”
McCullough’s bold prediction comes on the heels of a new Gallup survey, which says that 56% of American’s consider themselves better off than they were four years ago at the conclusion of the previous administration, even during a worldwide pandemic. The survey also shows that most voters agree with Trump on the issues and find him to be a strong, decisive leader.
McCullough, KMC Radio host and founder of BingeThinker.com, has a history of correct presidential predictions, including calling Trump’s victory in 2016. Instead of dissecting granular, district-by-district political minutia, McCullough relies heavily on overarching national trends in formulating his electoral predictions. He first broke onto the stage in 2006, when he published an article predicting a Barack Obama presidency.
McCullough’s recently-released 2020 electoral map predicts a Republican tidal wave, with Trump not only winning the states he carried in 2016 – including Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Arizona – but also picking up Nevada, New Hampshire and Minnesota.
“I think Donald Trump is going to blow Minnesota out of the water,” he said on the Eric Metaxas Radio Show, pointing to the key issues of law and order and the economy. “I think it is going to turn the darkest red that it has ever thought of being in the modern era. The enthusiasm in Minnesota is so raging…they are ready to walk through fire, crawl over glass, pick the analogy of your choice. They want to get to the polls.”
Overall, he has Trump winning 331 electoral votes, compared to just 207 for Biden. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win, and this prediction would be an increase over Trump’s 2016 winning tally of 306.
“It’s all red. We’re not talking just swing states” said Stinchfield, as he showed McCullough’s predicted map of the electoral outcome. “We’re talking a massive, Reagan-style landslide.”
Many others, including high-profile attorney and political gambler Robert Barnes, have also been singing the same song, noting the long list of trends favoring a comfortable Trump victory. Barnes often points to traditional objective data points, such as search engine volume, social media support, voter registration trends and models based on party primary turnout. All strongly favor Trump in 2020.
In addition, many other political voices point to a growing list of related, objective measurements that also foreshadow a Trump win. These include a dramatic rise in gun purchases, who polled Americans think is going to win, the stock market’s current rise over the three months leading up to the election, expected record-setting 3rd quarter GDP growth, younger candidates and incumbents almost always winning and the total number of small-dollar donors. Many experts point out that these data points all favor Trump, while only one – the group of big media and university polls – favors Biden. McCullough says both campaigns understand the real state of the race.
“They both know that the media polls are not accurate,” McCullough. “I know this because I’ve spoken to the Trump pollster and he’s told me directly, ‘yeah, they’re not even close.’ Biden people know they’re not accurate either, and if they tell the real story of what it looks like, it’s not gonna be good.”
In the conversation with Metaxas, who refers to McCullough as “Vote-stradamus,” he points specifically to the support that President Donald Trump enjoys among the Republican party, which is far superior to what either Barack Obama or George W. Bush garnered from their parties during the runup to their successful reelections. Also important is the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential tracking poll, where Trump’s job approval numbers have been consistently higher than those of president Obama during the month of September leading up to reelection. And that is with massively favorable, idolatry-like media coverage for Obama, compared to the opposite for Trump.
“While I don’t have an exact science to why I’m coming to these conclusions, there is certainly a lot of data, not anything that is indicating to me that Biden has this huge lead, other than those media polls that keep getting published on every media channel,” he said.
McCullough says he will update his 2020 map as the days tick down until the election, but that his current prognostication is about far more than just Trump’s appeal. As he sees it, this race is also about what many see to be the shortfalls of Biden’s long tenure in government.
“When you’ve been in Washington for 47 years and you’ve not really gotten any accomplishments to your credit, except things that you are kind of embarrassed by, like the prison reform package that he put together that jailed more African Americans than anything before it, you’re talking about a very troublesome record that he’s got to depend upon, “ McCullough pointed out. “This is one of the reasons even president Obama was slow to endorse him.”
Kevin McCullough has traditionally been spot on when he puts out an electoral map projection, and since making this prediction last week he has gained nearly 30,000 Twitter followers.
These thousands join millions more who are hoping his streak continues in just a few short weeks.
Rick Schultz is a former Sports Director for WFUV Radio at Fordham University. He has coached and mentored hundreds of Sports Broadcasting students at the Connecticut School of Broadcasting, Marist College and privately. His media career experiences include working for the Hudson Valley Renegades, Army Sports at West Point, The Norwich Navigators, 1340/1390 ESPN Radio in Poughkeepsie, NY, Time Warner Cable TV, Scorephone NY, Metro Networks, NBC Sports, ABC Sports, Cumulus Media, Pamal Broadcasting and WATR. He has also authored a number of books including “A Renegade Championship Summer” and “Untold Tales From The Bush Leagues”. To get in touch, find him on Twitter @RickSchultzNY.
In News/Talk Radio, Sometimes It’s Ok to Break the Format
Sometimes, it’s ok to skip a break or two if the content is so compelling that you know your listeners can’t get enough.
The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. As hosts, we spend hours preparing for our radio shows. Reading, listening, and consuming news of all kinds. Putting together a road map for every program. Figuring out where potential guests might fit into each hour, if at all. It’s a daily puzzle, but occasionally we have reminders that plans can, and should, go up in flames when appropriate.
Last week was a week of chaos in Kansas City, as one woman was killed and nearly two dozen injured, including one dozen children, following a shooting shortly after the Chiefs Super Bowl parade wrapped up in front of Union Station.
As broadcasters, we are asked to give the facts to update the public on a minute-by-minute basis as to what is happening in their community, but then, as talk show hosts, we are also required to opine and create engaging content around the tragic news that impacts our communities.
It’s a fine line to walk, at times, especially considering the amount of misinformation that can rapidly circulate on social media, with far too much attention being given to being “first” rather than being “right”.
And while we are working to navigate news that is constantly changing, when there’s a moment to “break the clock”, so to speak, it’s worth doing.
Friday morning, 36 hours after the shooting, FS1’s Nick Wright offered to come on my show to debate gun control, which he had been advocating for on his platforms since Wednesday afternoon.
I had used my social media to refute many of his points, which led to his suggestion that he join my show that morning and debate on the air. The entire backstory was written about here on Barrett News Media.
This came together 30 minutes before he appeared on the air. And there goes the show plans.
The conversation began at 8:05 am, and I thought to myself, if this is going well, I will keep him through a break and wrap around to the bottom of the hour.
It became apparent in the first 60 seconds that this was not going to be a hold-over conversation and that it was going to be intense. At that point, I decided to let the conversation ride as long as it felt like it was engaging content for the audience.
That meant three breaks and the news reports had to go. Don’t worry, sales staff, we made it all up!
But I also did something I usually don’t do, I monitored our KCMO Talk Radio stream in real-time, which was jumping 15-20% each quarter hour as the conversation continued.
As for the content of the conversation, you can listen to that on our podcast and determine for yourself how you feel it went (and I’d be open to your critical feedback).
But from a radio formatics standpoint, there are times, albeit very infrequently, when breaking the clock and the format of the hour makes sense. It has to be a feel, as much as anything else, but remember, with real-time streaming numbers that you should have access to, you can use the immediate technology available to you to at least get one data point that might clue you into if your gut is right.
In the meantime, keep hitting your breaks, getting your spots in on time, and playing by the PPM-friendly rules. Your GM, sales manager, and program director will appreciate it.
Pete Mundo is the morning show host and program director for KCMO in Kansas City. Previously, he was a fill-in host nationally on FOX News Radio and CBS Sports Radio, while anchoring for WFAN, WCBS News Radio 880, and Bloomberg Radio. Pete was also the sports and news director for Omni Media Group at K-1O1/Z-92 in Woodward, Oklahoma. He’s also the owner of the Big 12-focused digital media outlet Heartland College Sports. To interact, find him on Twitter @PeteMundo.
Saluting Black Broadcasters: Arthel Neville, Fox News
“Black History Month is a time to focus and remember that we should embrace commonalities. We have more in common than not as a human race.”
True to herself and true to the truth, Arthel Neville has graced TV screens for over 20 years. From hosting entertainment news, to acting, and for the last 10 years anchoring at Fox News, Neville said her successful career is thanks to, “A lot of hard work and it worked out and paid off.”
Growing up in New Orleans, music and celebrities we a part of Neville’s life, thanks to her famous musician father, Art Neville. Despite the fame, the Neville’s kept home life humble. “He was always daddy. He’d come home, he’d help me with my homework in the daytime because his work was at nighttime. He helped clean the house and mow the lawn and just regular stuff.” She later added, “I was always exposed to celebrities and people who had not your standard jobs, if you will. But I was always raised to just be humble, and it always just normal to me. So that was no different than if your dad went to work at a bank every day.”
After high school, Arthel Neville went to Xavier University, where she turned pre-pharmacy and made the Dean’s list. But while she was in school, “I was doing some local commercials in New Orleans. I got a regional, commercial for Burger King at the time. In my first year of college, I took a gap year.”
Neville went to New York and stayed with her dad’s friends and gave acting a full-time shot.
“I went up there and did the cattle calls like everybody else but I also got an opportunity to work on Saturday Night Live as an extra,” Neville said. She also appeared on All My Children but after 12 months, “I knew my mom told me, ‘You have one year and you have to go back to college.’ So I said alright. I didn’t get this really major part in the soap opera and then I knew that was time to go.”
Transferring schools, Arthel Neville landed at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. She picked the school because “At the time Dallas had a major production facility complex. So I could work to help pay for my college.” She put together a tape and a colleague connected her with a KVUE Executive Producer.
KVUE hired Neville and she transferred to the University of Texas. For two and a half years, she went to school and worked as a full-time student and full-time general assignment reporter. Neville said of the time, “I would go to class from 8 AM to 1 PM and then I go to work from 1:30 PM to 10:30 PM.” She later added, “My days off at the time were Tuesday and Wednesday because, you know, low man on the totem pole then. So you see this cycle of just nonstop working and working and rarely I would get a holiday off my vacation time.”
Neville did the market climb until she got her national break as an entertainment reporter on E! “I had my own celebrity one-on-one celebrity interview show for E!. This was before everybody and their grandmother was doing celebrity interviews. So it was a really big deal and it was a 30-minute show. So again, that was a big deal.” She later added, “I’m still very, very proud of that work to this day. Really quality work. So once you get on that plane, offers start to come in. You get a lot of attention.”
Arthel Neville made appearances on several shows including The Fresh Prince of Bel Air, Moesha, and Monk. She noted, “You’re a celebrity at that point and then they call you in and word got around that I can act. So I kept getting the calls and I had a lot of fun doing that. I loved it, really a lot of fun.” She added, “After a while, I decided to leave the entertainment space and get back into hard news because I figured that that is what would provide the most longevity.”
Over the years, Neville has covered thousands of stories. But the most meaningful to her is her work after Hurricane Katrina.
“As a journalist, the story is not about us. When that story was about me, that was personal. That was my hometown ravaged and that was we lost. We lost a collective of ten family homes. I will say no one [in my family] died in this storm, thank God.”
Arthel Neville later added, “I mean, there are times when I’m out there just in a boat going to my house, I’m going to break down because I’m a person. Even writing the story had a lot of crying. I did [cry] some on camera because I’m not trying to make it about me, but I’m also a person. But mostly off-camera. That was the most difficult assignment of my life because it was personal.”
Arthel Neville has made history several times in the industry. At E!, she became the first African-American woman to host a nationally syndicated entertainment news magazine program. More recently being awarded the DeWitt Carter Reddick award from Moody College of Communications in 2017, their first African American female honoree.
When asked what Black History Month meant to her she focused less on race and more on what commonalities we, the human race, have.
“I am a Black woman 12 months of the year, 365 days of the year. So Black History Month is nice for other people who don’t walk my path and live my life to maybe stop, and focus on people who have created created a pathway not just for me, but for you and everybody else. It’s not just for Black people. People who have come in before us, who have made things better for the country.”
She later added, “Black History Month is a time to focus and remember that we should embrace commonalities. We have more in common than not as a human race. So stop it with the looking at people from the perspective you think they’re different from you because they look different. We’re all human beings and let’s take that. Take this month to focus on that. Love each other.”
Krystina Alarcon Carroll is a columnist and features writer for Barrett News Media.She currently freelances at WPIX in New York, and has previously worked on live, streamed, and syndicated TV programs. Her prior employers have included NY1, Fox News Digital, Law & Crime Network, and Newsmax. You can find Krystina on X (formerly twitter) @KrystinaAlaCarr.
Radio — The Communication Business Where We Don’t Communicate
Corporate policies are cold and rigid.
When I was a radio program director in the 1970s and 80s personally responding to job applicants was an important part of every work day. Nobody told me to do it, it was just obvious. Replying to letters from people who mailed me their personal introductions, resumes, and airchecks was as important to me as if they had made an appointment and were seated in my office, freshly scrubbed, smiling with hope, and making their best first impression.
Every afternoon I read their letters and resumes. I listened attentively to their carefully packaged tapes as if mining for a rare gem, which I was. I wrote encouraging letters to them whether I had a possible job for them or not. I took unexpected phone calls from job applicants.
Why wouldn’t I? These were passionate broadcasters offering their unique, hard-earned experience. They respected our station and were excited for an opportunity to join us. Besides, I’d been in their position myself and would be again. These hopeful young talents deserved my attention. To me, as a program manager, it was my primary responsibility.
None of this happens anymore. Radio job seekers today have to run a gauntlet of dehumanizing corporate job websites. When you’ve filled in all the blanks and linked the resume you spent hours perfecting you hold your breath and click “submit”. You did it! The website immediately gives you the impersonal assurance that your application has been received. You wonder if that’s true. You may never really know.
Bob Helbig is the media partnerships director at Energage, a Philadelphia-based employee survey firm. He recently found that while 60% of employers surveyed said they felt they regularly communicated with applicants, only 28% of job seekers said they felt the communication was sufficient.
Corporate policies are cold and rigid. I recently talked with a major market talk radio program director who asked to remain anonymous, which in itself tells the tale. He told me he’s not even allowed to take word-of-mouth recommendations for new hires. Email and phone inquiries are out of the question. When somebody tells him, “Hey, I know a great reporter you should talk to,” all he can reply is, “Please tell them to apply online.” The most he can do is file a name in his memory and hope it pops up in the HR-approved list of candidates.
Back in the day, I would have phoned that reporter and invited him or her to come in and talk.
As a job applicant, you know you face strong competition. All the career websites offer volumes of advice about how to prepare a strong resume to stand out from the crowd. You’ve done that. You plug it into the web portal, hoping to make an impression. You count the days since you submitted your application and check your email many times daily hoping for an encouraging reply from a real human, maybe even from the big-name program director who holds the key to your future.
Patience. You have to wait still longer.
After a few days, you wonder if a real person has even seen your application or if the algorithm is just weeding people out. Yes, indeed it is.
Artificial Intelligence now entering the process might speed things up a bit but it won’t help your need for human contact. God forbid AI takes over the screening process entirely but you can’t rule that out.
Nobody writes or calls even to say, “Thanks for your interest, we’ll get back to you.” You’re left to wonder if your love of radio, your hard work, and your beautifully written pitch even landed before a real person’s eyes.
The worst part is knowing that hearing nothing is nothing personal.
Jeff Altman is a career coach and host of the No BS Job Search Advice Radio podcast. He told Forbes, “The hiring process has been turned into sausage-making. People apply for jobs through an applicant tracking system where they are expected to homogenize their experience so they are plucked from the thousands of others. They are asked the same questions by most employers until, eventually, they are chosen and onboarded.”
How did we get to this complex and impersonal process? Laws, of course. Federal and state mandates to prevent any form of discrimination in hiring practices are good things but they don’t allow for human integrity and discretion. They’re ironclad. The difficulty for HR departments lies in making sure that the rules are followed to the letter by management employees who are not lawyers. The list of federal regulations alone is long and daunting.
“For instance, you can’t ask questions that reveal a person’s race, gender, religion, marital status, disabilities, ethnic background, country of origin, or age on an application or during an interview. This information could lead to biases and discrimination in the hiring process.”
Those restrictions are fairly obvious these days but they’re just the tip of a large iceberg, most of which is hidden below the surface and beyond the limits of what program directors, news directors, sales, and other radio managers are expected to know. So, yes, the software is asking only legally acceptable questions before any live interviews can take place.
I really hate being the “back in my day” old fart but my god, is there no way we can allow a young person to walk into a radio station with stars in her or his eyes, and talk to somebody about their future?
Must we expect job applicants of the 21st Century to understand that’s just the way things are or could the process be massaged a bit to keep them hopeful and feeling less like a piece of uninspected data?
Would it be so hard to send job applicants a pleasant and somewhat personal email along the lines of: “Hi, Mark. I’m in the H.R. Department at BigTime Media and I want to thank you for your application for our on-air opening at News/Talk 95.3 WTF. I will call or text you when your qualifications have been reviewed and let you know whether you can expect a follow-up live interview with somebody at the station. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to ask. – Sincerely, Mary Sunbeam, BigTime Media”.
Sure, it’s another form letter but at least it addresses the applicant by name, refers to the specific station, and gives them a sense of humanity and hope for future contact. Assigning applicants to a real-life personal H.R. staff member like Mary Sunbeam might require a little more effort but it would be an enormous boost to the company’s reputation.
There might be other ways to go about it. The point is people need to feel their applications are worthwhile and accepted with some degree of sincere gratitude.
The ugly irony is we’re in radio, yet we talk to people, not with them.
Dave Williams spun top-40 hits in Sacramento before RKO Radio snagged him as Program Director for K-Earth in L.A. and WHBQ, Memphis. He ultimately began 40 years as morning news host at KFBK, KFWB, KNX, and KLIF, earning ten AP awards with his partners as Best News Anchor Teams in California and Texas. Dave now hosts and produces a podcast featuring some of the biggest names in radio programming and management. You can find it on YouTube and top podcast audio apps at Conversations.buzz. Follow Dave on Twitter @RadioDave.