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A Trump Landslide Victory is Coming

McCullough’s bold prediction comes on the heels of a new Gallup survey, which says that 56% of American’s consider themselves better off than they were four years ago at the conclusion of the previous administration, even during a worldwide pandemic.

Rick Schultz

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President Donald Trump will win reelection on November 3rd, and by a larger margin than his 2016 shocker.

That’s the opinion of KMC Radio talk-show host Kevin McCullough, who made the declaration recently on Twitter and during subsequent appearances with Grant Stinchfield on Newsmax TV and on the Eric Metaxas Radio Show.

“The only thing I can find right now in American culture that says Trump is going to lose are these polls that continually come out, the RealClearPolitics average puts them together,” says McCullough, pointing out big media and university polls that many think are missing a wide swath of Trump voters and under-representing Republicans. “I think if you have properly-weighted polls and you don’t talk to registered voters, but you talk to likely voters, you start to get a different story.” Specifically, he points out the massive enthusiasm advantage for President Trump, as well as rapid job expansion as the economy roars back from the pandemic-induced shutdowns.

“Trump voters will literally crawl over glass to get to the polls for President Trump,” Stinchfield agreed. “That’s not the case for Joe Biden. He just happened to be the person Democrats offered up.”

McCullough’s bold prediction comes on the heels of a new Gallup survey, which says that 56% of American’s consider themselves better off than they were four years ago at the conclusion of the previous administration, even during a worldwide pandemic. The survey also shows that most voters agree with Trump on the issues and find him to be a strong, decisive leader.

McCullough, KMC Radio host and founder of BingeThinker.com, has a history of correct presidential predictions, including calling Trump’s victory in 2016.  Instead of dissecting granular, district-by-district political minutia, McCullough relies heavily on overarching national trends in formulating his electoral predictions. He first broke onto the stage in 2006, when he published an article predicting a Barack Obama presidency.

McCullough’s recently-released 2020 electoral map predicts a Republican tidal wave, with Trump not only winning the states he carried in 2016 – including Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Arizona – but also picking up Nevada, New Hampshire and Minnesota.

“I think Donald Trump is going to blow Minnesota out of the water,” he said on the Eric Metaxas Radio Show, pointing to the key issues of law and order and the economy. “I think it is going to turn the darkest red that it has ever thought of being in the modern era. The enthusiasm in Minnesota is so raging…they are ready to walk through fire, crawl over glass, pick the analogy of your choice. They want to get to the polls.”

Overall, he has Trump winning 331 electoral votes, compared to just 207 for Biden. A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win, and this prediction would be an increase over Trump’s 2016 winning tally of 306. 

“It’s all red. We’re not talking just swing states” said Stinchfield, as he showed McCullough’s predicted map of the electoral outcome. “We’re talking a massive, Reagan-style landslide.”

Many others, including high-profile attorney and political gambler Robert Barnes, have also been singing the same song, noting the long list of trends favoring a comfortable Trump victory. Barnes often points to traditional objective data points, such as search engine volume, social media support, voter registration trends and models based on party primary turnout.  All strongly favor Trump in 2020.

In addition, many other political voices point to a growing list of related, objective measurements that also foreshadow a Trump win. These include a dramatic rise in gun purchases, who polled Americans think is going to win, the stock market’s current rise over the three months leading up to the election, expected record-setting 3rd quarter GDP growth, younger candidates and incumbents almost always winning and the total number of small-dollar donors. Many experts point out that these data points all favor Trump, while only one – the group of big media and university polls – favors Biden. McCullough says both campaigns understand the real state of the race.

“They both know that the media polls are not accurate,” McCullough. “I know this because I’ve spoken to the Trump pollster and he’s told me directly, ‘yeah, they’re not even close.’  Biden people know they’re not accurate either, and if they tell the real story of what it looks like, it’s not gonna be good.”

In the conversation with Metaxas, who refers to McCullough as “Vote-stradamus,” he points specifically to the support that President Donald Trump enjoys among the Republican party, which is far superior to what either Barack Obama or George W. Bush garnered from their parties during the runup to their successful reelections. Also important is the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential tracking poll, where Trump’s job approval numbers have been consistently higher than those of president Obama during the month of September leading up to reelection. And that is with massively favorable, idolatry-like media coverage for Obama, compared to the opposite for Trump.

“While I don’t have an exact science to why I’m coming to these conclusions, there is certainly a lot of data, not anything that is indicating to me that Biden has this huge lead, other than those media polls that keep getting published on every media channel,” he said.

McCullough says he will update his 2020 map as the days tick down until the election, but that his current prognostication is about far more than just Trump’s appeal. As he sees it, this race is also about what many see to be the shortfalls of Biden’s long tenure in government.

“When you’ve been in Washington for 47 years and you’ve not really gotten any accomplishments to your credit, except things that you are kind of embarrassed by, like the prison reform package that he put together that jailed more African Americans than anything before it, you’re talking about a very troublesome record that he’s got to depend upon, “ McCullough pointed out. “This is one of the reasons even president Obama was slow to endorse him.”

Kevin McCullough has traditionally been spot on when he puts out an electoral map projection, and since making this prediction last week he has gained nearly 30,000 Twitter followers.

These thousands join millions more who are hoping his streak continues in just a few short weeks.

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1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. A. Pascale

    November 3, 2020 at 12:32 am

    CBS, had high ratings not because they are telling the truth, but because they are feeding their people with so much crap ! Why isn’t CBS saying anything about joe biden and Hunter of all the CHINA connections that they illegally did with 1.5 Billon dollar deals under the table? And they say it’s not verified? That’s funny the Russia hoax never was verified and that did not stopped CBS to say that Trump was a Russian spy when they had no proof what so ever, and now that Hunter biden’s laptop has been verified that everything is true where’s CBS? .and you call yourself news reporters, what a bunch of losers, that’s why TRUMP will win another 4 years, put that in your pipes and smoke it with Hunter, you dum Democrats!.

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News Radio Should Celebrate Audio-First Decision From Ron DeSantis

As radio programmers, hosts, and salespeople, we should be doing cartwheels and leveraging this moment.

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Ron DeSantis launched his 2024 Presidential run on Twitter Spaces on Wednesday night to much fanfare. By now, you’ve seen the hot takes on how the enthusiasm for DeSantis crashed Twitter or, depending on your preferred candidate, the rollout was a disaster and is a sign of things to come for his campaign. I’ll let the opposing campaigns and fanboys/girls, and news radio hosts hash that part out between themselves.

What’s far more interesting from a media perspective is DeSantis’ platform choice. It was not legacy media. He did not choose Fox News, Newsmax, etc., but more interesting was the fact he chose an audio-first medium on Twitter. There was no visual element at all.

Ron DeSantis did the equivalent of a radio interview to announce his 2024 bid. Yes, he hopped on Fox News later that evening with Trey Gowdy, but the official announcement and first media interview came on Twitter, without any video component. 

As radio programmers, hosts, and salespeople, we should be doing cartwheels and leveraging this moment.

For too long, TV has been overrated. It’s been a perfect storm. You have politicians who love seeing themselves on TV to feed their egos, and many of their advisors and media buyers have backgrounds in the medium, so it becomes an echo chamber.

From the ridiculous overspending during election season on overproduced, phony, repetitive television spots that produce diminishing returns (rather than the far more cost-effective and impactful radio ads), to the obsession with capturing every TV opportunity they can, TV has become overvalued in recent elections.

Ron DeSantis’ decision on Wednesday night may have been the move that makes many realize where they have missed the boat in recent years. 

If used in a calculating manner, DeSantis’ moment can benefit radio programming and sales.

Programmers should be pitching any of their local candidates in legitimate races that matter to try and get their candidacy announcement on radio. “If Ron DeSantis can go audio-first, why isn’t it good enough for you?” This would bring earned media for the candidate and radio station and the TV hits would follow.

On KCMO, we landed the announcement interview with former KC TV anchor Mark Alford, who used that springboard to win an open U.S. Congressional seat in 2022. 

From a sales perspective, this could also be a game changer in helping PACs, agencies, and campaigns understand the personal nature of the audio-first medium, which radio still dominates, despite what the naysayers claim.

During the 2022 cycle, radio did exceed its estimates in political advertising with $310 million, compared to the projections of $270 million. But that’s peanuts compared to the $4.73 billion spent on broadcast TV, according to this article from Radio Insight.

That is absurd. And it is the very definition of diminishing returns. Whether it’s a Presidential candidate in a key state or city, or more appropriately for this column, a local U.S. Senate, or congressional, candidate in your market, there are two paths.

One, they can become another overplayed, tune-out TV ad, where their ego is stroked and they get noticed in the grocery store, but they don’t get the value from the spending they need. 

Or, two, they can own radio, which will be more cost-effective, impactful, personal for the listener, oh, and reach a potential voter that is 10-15 years younger, on average, than those still watching broadcast TV. 

None of this is to suggest that TV is not important, of course, it will forever be critical to have a visual component for politicians in the 21st century. But it’s not everything. It never has been and it never will be, despite what the differential in ad spending suggests. 

If audio-first is a good enough launch for one of the front runners to land in the White House in 2024, I’d say it’s more than good enough for anyone else entering the political arena at any level.

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Twitter Facing Several Questions After Multimedia Struggles

Everyone should have the ability to say what they want but that doesn’t mean they have the ability to make up their own truths that aren’t factually based.

Jessie Karangu

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When Kim Kardashian broke the internet and Twitter, we marveled and were astonished at her attempt and it worked. Her infamy continued to skyrocket more positively than negatively because she embraced her sexuality in a sensual but respectful way.

When TMZ broke the internet, they became a dependable source for news about celebrity deaths even if the method behind their madness was and still is pure madness.

On Wednesday, when Elon Musk and Ron DeSantis broke the internet it was just plain trash.

Your local waste management company couldn’t fix the travesty that was Wednesday night on Twitter. Tech issues, hosts having trouble connecting, listeners hearing nothing — that was the main story of what was allegedly supposed to be the launch of Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign.

On Twitter Spaces’ biggest night, it made the platform seem out of space and out of touch with the rest of society. When you fire key engineers from your staff, only allow groupthink in your office quarters, and don’t feel the need to answer to anyone because you’ll still get bank credit even if Twitter goes bankrupt, this is the result. Hubris.

At the beginning when things went haywire and nothing was working, the stream drew about 600,000 listeners. By the time the stream actually started working it was down to 100,000 concurrent listeners. Media journalist Oliver Darcy joked that more people are watching CNN at 3:00 AM than were listening to Twitter’s live stream.

With that being said, drawing 600,000 listeners is no small feat. If used effectively, Twitter can become an influential voice in this upcoming election.

Twitter, as a tool, has always been impactful. Journalists, commentators, and newsmakers have used its real-time functionality to shape the national conversation. Twitter as a company hasn’t played too much of an editorial role other than putting their name brand on town halls and debates until the Musk reign. The company has already been able to secure conservative brands Tucker Carlson and The Daily Wire to join their alliance. Both entities plan on posting daily videos to counter the “mainstream media narrative.”

It’s extremely smart to have them posting original content natively to the site. It will increase engagement, it’ll increase the amount of time users spend, and their success could convince other news organizations to produce content that is exclusive to the site.

In the past, Twitter has partnered with BuzzFeed and even the NFL to try and steal a share of television’s audience but it hasn’t proven profitable or viral. Tucker Carlson’s removal from Fox has caused a major splinter among conservative media audiences and could be an answer to Twitter’s content desires. They’ll be serving an audience that can’t find what they want anywhere else.

The problem Twitter faces is that it has already established itself as the place for real-time content and breaking news, as well as the most active social home for many of our country’s most reliable sources. Whether Elon Musk realizes this or not, he has a moral obligation to ensure the user experience stays as neutral as possible even if he wants the company to become a conservative brand. 

Musk needs to make an effort to bring Democratic representatives in to commit to Twitter Spaces sessions as well. A conversation doesn’t exist if two sides of the spectrum aren’t involved and, eventually, interest in Twitter’s political media initiatives will die off because Dems will seek audiences on bigger platforms Twitter can’t compete with.

The Biden campaign could decide to solely focus on TV audiences, YouTube, and webinars just like they did in the last election and still have a chance to win, leaving Twitter’s efforts irrelevant. They could even use Twitter’s tools to promote themselves without the help of Musk. It won’t help Musk or Twitter the brand feel more reliable or trustworthy among Americans without allowing both sides to speak. Twitter has to sell itself to everyone as the tech home for political conversations in the world of fragmented media.

If he’s going to go the activist route with conservative Spaces by having supporters of a particular politician moderating the discussion, then he should do the same thing for Democratic politicians who appear on Spaces as well. A word of advice going forward, though: A journalist always makes the most sense. Journalists are trained to be objective and facilitate conversations for a living. Everyone knows how to cook scrambled eggs, but I guarantee you Rachael Ray’s scrambled eggs hit differently.

Twitter can look to CNN as an example of what happens when a town hall is technologically sound and the moderator treats their panelist with fairness. Since Trump’s town hall, CNN has been able to garner time with Mike Pence and Nikki Haley. Both candidates saw the jump that the town hall gave Trump in attention and hype among his base and, quite frankly, understand that they can reach more people on TV than online. Trump’s town hall reached 3 million viewers. After DeSantis left his Twitter Spaces, he promoted his candidacy on Fox News to the tune of 2 million viewers, ironically Fox’s largest audience since Carlson was let go.

Musk also needs to create a tab dedicated to news and have running video options and audio options that display straight news along with conservative and liberal opinionists. These feeds are already available on other platforms. Why not sell advertising against it and keep viewers right on Twitter where they are already having the discussions? The best thing about Twitter’s old BuzzFeed morning show is that you could multitask.

You could catch up on news and thoughts on your feed while live video discussing what was trending could be placed towards the bottom of your phone screen with the window in window option on Apple devices. Users didn’t have to leave the app to catch up on what was happening in the world.

Allowing Carlson and The Daily Wire to become the only two sources of media that are promoted or favored on the app will only heighten tension before the election and will literally put lives at stake because of the possibility of both outlets spreading misinformation. 

This goes into the next idea to make Musk’s “public square” a safe and accurate space for everyone. Musk needs to either contract or hire fact-checkers. The fact-checkers should be in charge of verifying Community Notes, adding Community Notes to streams/videos/tweets that are posted by publishers to correct or clarify anything that was said, and creating videos of their own based on trending topics or viral videos that aren’t accurate.

Everyone should have the ability to say what they want but that doesn’t mean they have the ability to make up their own truths that aren’t factually based.

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AM Radio Will Still Ride Along…For Now

The math itself is simple. You don’t use what you don’t want. And you probably won’t use what you don’t believe you need.

Bill Zito

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In our last chapter on the fight to keep the AM radio in your car, things were not looking so good for the Sunday morning religious shows, exhaustingly predictable talk hosts, and the largely underpaid local news anchors.

But Ford has apparently heard the call from lawmakers, FEMA, and a variety of other concerned citizens, enough at least that they have announced they will back off their plans to do away with AM band in their new vehicles. For now, at least.

So, I will say the U-Turn decision by Ford is nice. Yes, I would venture to say it is nice. But is this a victory or merely a stay of execution?

And since no matter what, AM radio is not disappearing or soon to become unavailable, why don’t we just say this is more a case of bail continued until sentencing day.

What it means is there will be more cars and trucks with AM radios on our roads than we thought there would be last week.

How much of an impact will it make? I don’t think it will make much at all.

There are still a lot more car manufacturers going ahead with their plans to do away with AM so the math will not be grounds for celebration.

The math itself is simple. You don’t use what you don’t want. And you probably won’t use what you don’t believe you need. Even if you might need it now and then.

My vehicle has a trailer hitch. I don’t use that either. I don’t need it. It just happens to be there.

In other words, it does nothing for me and for many people neither does AM radio.

Where do you think these car makers got the idea in the first place to take the AM band out of the vehicles?

I’m sure they asked a few people.

How likely are you to not buy this car if it doesn’t have an AM radio in it?

Ever hear of market research? We did this already.

I’m glad, for now at least, that a few more people will have a choice. We deserve that. We are the ones buying stuff. Treat us with respect.

I have expressed this opinion before. You can put an AM radio everywhere but if the content is not worth the effort, then all it becomes is a receptacle for go-to emergency broadcasts and possibly some inane chatter or white noise to fall asleep by.

I’ve said this before too: Give them something worth listening to and they might listen. They might give it a try and they might actually like it. But here is the trick. Now that you have them, how do you keep them?

Well, now you must be consistently good or at least not awful. That’s harder than it seems, just zigzag across the country and find out.

Oh, when you do you have to turn your AM radio on and keep it on. No cheating, no flipping to the FM or satellite or your own playlists or podcasts or audiobooks.

Could you do it?

The blame for subpar content or a lack of listener-friendly programming is not all the fault of those behind the microphone or those producing, writing, or booking. But you already know that and so do I.

So just look up.

If management or corporate executives are physically upstairs as opposed to around the corner or down the hall. My experience over the last few years has been they are rarely in the building.

But regardless of where they physically might be they are often the ones behind all that glitters or does not.

I have found a good clue to what you might be getting on the air can be taken from a glimpse at the station’s website.

Most stations and managers put a great deal of emphasis on driving viewers, listeners, and readers to their home page. So, go there but go past the landing page with the obligatory three web stories that are less than 24 hours old and delve a bit deeper.

You are most likely to find a lot of material from last week, last month, and even last year if you click on a few sections. Some outlets I have some familiarity with have a mostly corporate-run website with plenty of room though for local elements like news stories, programming schedules, and show host biographies.

You’d think at minimum they would update their lineups, their show schedules, and add some information to entice that reader back to the air product. You’d think.

Nostalgic as I might be, I do not particularly care who was hosting in 2021 nor do I want to listen to an interview with a losing mayoral candidate from a year and a half ago. If your air drives somebody to your website or vice-versa, there should be something of value waiting there for them.

Remember, respect for the audience, the customer is always right, or karma is a …

Back on that cross-country trip, you are likely to find some good things in your travels, largely local and national sports talk, maybe a bit of financial chat, or solid religious conversation. But is it enough to fight off the eviction of AM from your car?

And don’t forget the demographics. The only time my kid listened to the AM band was to hear me (once) and even that took a bit of prompting. Her generation and the one after her, are the last chance to bring on some additional support.

After then, who will be listening?

Tell us why these stations need to stay there when we can generally find them or what they offer in other configurations.

Just as I asked last time, what can AM do that others cannot?

If I know my gene pool, my grandchildren are not going to be fighting for AM radio in their space boats or their flying cars.

CDs maybe.

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