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Political Polling: Cream Rising to the Top?

With primary season in full swing, major national pollsters have stepped into their cyclical period of prominence, trying to predict – or for some, shape – the trend of electoral opinion.

Rick Schultz

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It’s that time of the political cycle again.

They face off against each other, trying to prove who really has the pulse of the American electorate.

And on Election Day, voters will finally determine who is right and who is wrong.

And by they, we don’t mean the politicians. 

We mean the pollsters.

With primary season in full swing, major national pollsters have stepped into their cyclical period of prominence, trying to predict – or for some, shape – the trend of electoral opinion.

Among the most accurate in recent years have been Rasmussen Reports and the Trafalgar Group, to name just a couple. But the most ubiquitous, via his weekly online programming and various news media appearances, has been Richard Baris and his Big Data Poll.

Baris, “The People’s Pundit,” hosts weekly YouTube programs, occasionally with the renowned attorney and political analyst Robert Barnes. In addition, he has appeared on national news programs, with hosts such as Tucker Carlson, with more regular spots with Steve Bannon’s War Room and others.

With all eyes looking toward November’s Election Day, the Big Data Poll has already resumed its position as a frontrunner, giving an electoral snapshot heading into August 2nd’s primaries.

For example, two weeks ago, Baris released his Arizona statewide polls, showing considerable, and growing, leads for GOP Senate primary candidate Blake Masters and GOP Gubernatorial primary candidate Kari Lake. His data showed Lake leading by 17 and Masters by 13. 

And for being first with these developing snapshots, Baris was roundly derided and dismissed in many mainstream political circles.

But just a week later, many outlets are coming to the same conclusion as the Big Data Poll.

On Friday, the headline for Laurie Roberts’ opinion piece for the Arizona Republic read, “Kari Lake, Blake Masters, and Mark Finchem are all surging toward victory. Democrats cheer.” The article detailed the recent surge by both candidates. The same wave that was picked up early by Baris and simultaneously disbelieved by most analysts.

Roberts wrote Friday, “What was a 39-31 split in early July is now 51-33, according to the OH Predictive Insights poll, a combination of live callers and text. That resembles several other independent polls released in recent days. I didn’t believe them. Until now.” To her credit, she based her outlook on the emerging trend, first picked up by Baris.

On Friday, Rasmussen also released polls showing similar leads for the duo – Masters by 12 in his GOP Senate primary race and Lake by nine in her Arizona governor primary.

And just a day earlier, Trafalgar Group showed Masters up by eight and Lake by nine. Each reputable poll verifies what Big Data Poll had shown a week earlier. 

Baris began last week’s program by taking a victory lap of sorts.

“I just want to say before I start this that you might have noticed Doug Ducey’s own pollster. Just all the abuse last week I took with that poll, and Doug Ducey’s own pollster just came out. And so far, I’ve just seen the Governors. I’m sure it says the same thing with the Senate if they’re polling that as well. But the fact of the matter is, the CD Media Poll definitely had Kari Lake leading and our next guest (Blake Masters) leading.”

Regarding Arizona Governor Doug Ducey, Baris was referring to a newly-released Data Orbital poll out of Arizona, which also showed Lake leading by 11 over Karrin Taylor Robson.

When political writer, David Catanese, tweeted the final @OHPredictive polls before this week’s primaries, which also showed Lake leading by 18 and Masters by 15, Baris tweeted, “Damn, that looks familiar. Looks like our final interviews. That’s rather remarkable.” 

The Big Data Poll has been correct with most of its polling over recent years. In 2020, he was correct in calling Florida and Ohio as big blowout states in favor of President Trump. He was also cautious, stopping short of saying the President would carry Nevada, Minnesota, or New Hampshire. His data also showed Trump would do well in Georgia and Arizona. Regarding those two electoral outcomes, both Baris and Barnes shared hours of analysis in the months that followed the 2020 election.

“I’m not being arrogant here. I don’t want it to come across as arrogance. It’s just that this happens every time,” Baris said with a laugh. “I release a poll; this is the way it is, this is what we’re finding. And there’s always these critics that say, ‘oh no, Lake does not lead by that much. Blake Masters is not winning by that much.’ Ok, whatever.”

Baris has spent countless hours over the past few years detailing the shortcomings of the current polling industry – from their methods to their agendas. He has often described the difference between reputable pollsters, whose goal is to take an accurate snapshot of public opinion, and groups that incorrectly skew their samples or build a model based on flawed surveys. He also notes that as much as who you poll and how you weigh the samples, it is crucial to examine how you ask the question.

In last week’s program, he specifically cited specific data-collecting methods as being better than others. Specifically, he said that faced with a months-long pandemic shutdown, many people signed up for internet polls and panels out of pure boredom. These people, Baris says, now make up a much higher percentage of online polls and surveys, dramatically skewing the results.

“A lot of these people are just really high-interest voters, and they don’t represent the entire electorate,” Baris said. “So these consumer panels are really blowing the metro vote way too; it’s way too much in the sampling.”

On Saturday, Baris tweeted, “It’s just crystal clear at this point that certain pollsters have no interest in correcting their repeated failures.”

Over the years, Baris’ People’s Pundit Daily and What Are The Odds, with Baris and Barnes programs, have become YouTube staples for political junkies and data nerds alike. Master classes in statistical analysis, demographic trends, and trending political issues.

Last week, Baris made a few other predictions based on his mid-year polling and gauge of the current electoral mood.

Number one – Kari Lake is the early favorite to win the race for Governor of Arizona, regardless of the mainstream media narrative that she is “unelectable.” 

Number two – in a break from the popular media narrative, his surveys found that those supporting the overturning of Roe vs. Wade are 10% more “certain to vote” than those opposing it.

And number three – Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis would be an “unbeatable ticket” en route to Republicans re-capturing the White House in 2024.

This week, we will see how Big Data’s polling holds up during the primaries. And over the next few months and a couple of years, viewers will watch Baris’ programming to see if his results remain predictive of our nation’s most crucial races and issues.

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Michael Berry Doesn’t Want to Be All Serious All the Time

“I get to entertain everyday and people come and listen to me. That really — more than anything else — is the thrill.”

Garrett Searight

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A photo of Michael Berry

There are plenty of nationally syndicated radio shows that began as local shows. Not many hosts, however, have both a local radio show and a nationally syndicated show each weekday. But Michael Berry isn’t your average radio talk show host.

In addition to hosting a local show on NewsRadio 740 KTRH, Berry hosts The Michael Berry Show on more than 40 stations throughout the nation. And he believes having a local show in his hometown market — Houston — while still getting to talk about national topics on his afternoon show is the ideal situation for him.

“It lets me sort of keep my hand in two very different pies and do two very different shows. And that fulfills me,” Berry said. “I wouldn’t want to do just one or just the other. And I think part of it — I was the Mayor Pro Tem of the city of Houston, so I got very involved and very entrenched in the political world. I know a lot of the restaurant owners, I know a lot of business owners, and I really enjoy making the fourth-largest city into a tiny town for our listeners.

“But I also want to be able to talk to a national audience on a national level. I get to do both of those. I think that’s ideal for me.”

Michael Berry served on the City Council in Houston from 2002-2008, which gives him a unique perspective about both local and national politics that many others in the format don’t have.

“I think the experience of how bills are made and the backroom deals and how they’re done, I think that informs my opinions in a way that if you haven’t done that, it makes it harder to understand,” said Berry. “Also the blocking and tackling of how you get bills passed and how you win elections and those sorts of things.

“It just gives you that experience and it also helps you understand when a politician or an elected official says something that seems to go against what he believes or what he promised. You have a better sense of ‘Ok, who did he sell out to? Why did he do that? Where is the pressure point?’

“Because I think listeners want to understand not just why is Mitch McConnell doing something that feels like it’s against what the base is doing. The better question is, what’s the pressure point? What’s driving him? Who’s pushing him into that corner? And I think when you’re in the process, you get a very good sense of that.”

One could refer to Michael Berry as an almost new-age news/talk host. While one of the large criticisms of conservative talk radio today is the vitriol and anger most hosts present on the air, Berry is often presenting the opposite. Oftentimes, his show isn’t centered on conservative political viewpoints at all. A constant presentation of hope, admiration, and excitement not just about politics but about culture and the conservative lifestyle is the backbone of Berry’s program.

And while he has an affinity for those inside the conservative talk radio format, he simply believes he’s filling a different, virtually unoccupied, lane.

“There are some brilliant people out there on the radio. Sean Hannity has access to every elected official. Clay (Travis) and Buck (Sexton) are getting access to anybody they want as a guest. Mark Levin is a brilliant mind, a brilliant legal mind. (Glenn) Beck has a great perspective from decades of experience. Dan Bongino’s a really smart guy. There’s some really, really clever, smart, experienced broadcasters. I don’t need to be a lighter version of them, which is all I could ever hope to be. I want to be who I am,” admitted Berry.

“And I don’t see myself as competing with them. I wouldn’t want to. They’re all wonderful. We can all coexist, but I don’t want to watch the same show 24 hours a day. I want to create content that is different than other people are doing,” Berry continued. “Not because I’m better or they’re not good, but because I don’t think I can do it as well as they can. So I want to do what I do well.”

Michael Berry free admits he’d get bored simply sticking to the conservative political script for two separate shows each day. That’s why weaving other topics into his program continues to excite him.

“If all you do is what I call angry, old white man radio, you can’t build an audience and you can’t keep an audience. And the reason is that it becomes tedious. It becomes a chore to listen to. And everybody has heard that type of program that never laughs at anything and especially not that itself. We want to make people laugh. We want to talk about real life things, as well. We don’t have to talk politics 24/7.

“When I think about the influence in this country, on the culture, comedians have always had such an influence. The reason is that when you’re laughing, you’re thinking, and you’re engaging and you’re building your bond. I think that one of the great barriers to success in radio and success for the conservative movement is the inability to bond on the deeper level of let’s share a laugh.

“I think there is a great joy when I find that I’m making a point that I consider to be important, and yet in the middle of it, we can all laugh.”

Ultimately, Michael Berry doesn’t view his role in talk radio as a political pontificator, conservative advocate, or a preacher from behind the Republican pulpit. He views his craft from a completely different angle.

“I view myself as an entertainer. The hardcore conservative listeners don’t like me to say that because that means you must not mean what you say, or you’re not serious. I mean every word I say. And I’m very serious,” Berry stated. “But I’m serious in the way Dave Chappelle is serious. And make no mistake, Dave Chappelle is having a huge influence in America today on how we view the First Amendment or the concepts of freedom of thought…the reason is, is because he’s dead serious while making you laugh.

“When I was really deciding that this was a career I wanted to pursue…I went and studied stand-up comics, because I felt like that was the place. Otherwise, I would just mimic the guys that were already successful, and I didn’t want to do that,” Berry continued. “I felt dishonest about that.

“So what I did, instead, is I went and studied comedians, and delivery and how you engage an audience and how you hold an audience and how you make a point without beating the audience over the head with it. And how you go from point to point, how you pivot, how you make it fun. A lot of these are sort of back porch conversation tricks, you know, parlor games of, of how we keep a conversation going except it’s a one one man conversation without it feeling like I’m lecturing you.”

During our conversation, Michael Berry admitted he can hear hosts around the country who have lost the will to create compelling content, who say things they don’t believe, and are no longer in love with the format that once enticed them to join the industry.

However, he’s made a vow to never lose the excitement that comes with working in a format he still thoroughly enjoys.

“I view it as I get to wake up every day excited to go to the studio. My dad worked for 40 years at a plant in the maintenance unit and he hated every day of it. But he had all us kids to take care of. I get to entertain every day and people come and listen to me,” he shared. “That really, more than anything else, that is the thrill. I know that sounds hokey, but it’s true.

“I think that most people probably don’t love what they do…I’m a megalomaniac. We all have to be to have the audacity to think that you can talk every day and people want to hear you, but I love it. It’s a thrill. I love to talk and I love to create stories and I love to create entertainment and create content. And when I hear from people that in some way they enjoyed it. It’s more rewarding than you can imagine, in the way that it would be for a pastor, or a comedian, or a songwriter, or a singer. It is incredibly rewarding.

“We live in an abundance of riches when it comes to content…but for them to choose to come and say I’m gonna let you entertain me,” Michael Berry concluded. “That is the ultimate compliment.”

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Do Radio Hosts Actually Care About What They’re Talking About?

So many shows do topics because they feel like they have to. Maybe the topic’s trending. Maybe it’s leading the news. But if you don’t care, listeners will notice.

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A photo of a radio studio

If you don’t care, why should anyone else care about what you do?

That’s one reason why I didn’t watch the NBA All-Star Game Sunday night. You don’t get a 211-186 final if anyone is remotely making any effort at all. It’s an extended version of the pre-game warmup. Everyone’s throwing up threes with no defense. They might as well break into a layup drill. Nobody wants to get injured in a meaningless game. I’ve endured a lot of All-Star games among the major sports leagues, and I stopped bothering to watch years ago. I haven’t missed much.

That translates to other realms as well. This column focuses on the media, so if you’re, say, a talk radio host, you should be asking yourself whether you really care about what you’re talking about. That’s the threshold question: Do you care? Because if you don’t, are you really going to put in the effort to make the topic entertaining so that other people – your listeners – care enough to listen and stay with you for the whole segment?

So many shows do topics because they feel like they have to. Maybe the topic’s trending. Maybe it’s leading the news. But if you don’t care, listeners will notice. And “I don’t care about it” isn’t a particularly compelling talk radio topic, is it?

It’s easier for local sports talk – it’s a given that whatever you’re ranting about and whatever take you have, listeners care because, well, who listens to sports radio and doesn’t care about what’s going on (All-Star Games notwithstanding)?

News organizations, on the other hand, have a different goal: If it’s news that on the surface is dry and boring but still matters, it’s the reporters’ and editors’ job to explain why a viewer or reader should care. Ukraine or Gaza might seem remote to a lot of people, but their importance to a typical U.S. citizen can’t be understated, and it’s important (and often forgotten) to emphasize why they matter and what impact they have on everyone.

The simple fact is that the energy you project on anything you talk about or report upon is a reflection of what you have invested in the story. You can fake enthusiasm, but if you just truly don’t care about Taylor and Travis, you’ll just be going through the motions and that’s what the audience perceives.

On the other hand, if you’ve invested a lot of time digging into an arcane financial story and you know that what seems like a remote, inscrutable radio topic may have profound consequences for many consumers, emphasize that and make clear why the viewer or reader should care, and do it right out of the gate to grab their attention.

Here, a digression: Why do they even bother with the actual All-Star Game anymore? Take the NBA All-Star Weekend: Nobody will remember anything about the game (other than that one team scored over 200 points) but everyone will remember the Steph Curry-Sabrina Ionescu shootout. They may remember Mac McClung’s repeat dunk contest win or the celebrity game or Rising Stars games.

Why not just do the skills and challenges, which are usually entertaining, and skip the All-Star Game itself, which isn’t? Maybe add some contests and honors for past greats. Most of the people who trek to the All-Star venue are there for the parties anyway. And with baseball now doing interleague play all season, none of the All-Star Games involve getting to see players who don’t normally face each other in the regular season face off. They don’t need a game nobody in it wants to play. I recognize this will never happen.

But the main takeaway here is that it’s less true that you can’t make someone care about a thing they don’t care about themselves than it is true that if you don’t care, you have zero chance making anyone else care. Your poker face isn’t that good.

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Radio Was Built For Charity and Volunteer Work

Your charitable activities build a better world. Your radio show and station make a real difference.

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A photo of a volunteer

Art Bell once said, “We are all here for a Cosmic Blink. Use your time wisely.”  The wisest man in all of history, a fellow named Solomon said, “Vanity of vanities, all is vanity.” All of us are drawn to radio for usually a basic human impulse…it is a narcissistic rage that exists in every baby. Look at me! Listen to me! My opinions are important!

Unless you are a completely narcissistic fool, you have looked in the mirror and wondered about why we are here. What is your worth in the cosmic blink? Ok, let old Uncle Peter (Yes, I went full third person) explain.

We have all been given an amazing platform. Not only to spout our beliefs, biases, and humor, but to touch our communities. Does your show have a charity? Why not? Does your station have a charity or a “Day of Action” to support local causes? The answer should be yes. Radio shows and stations raise millions of dollars to improve our society. We raise awareness of issues that create change. It is why we are here. 

Before I give you some random idea starters for your show/station, let’s talk about the charities that you personally support. Do you give a portion of your income to religious, humanitarian, or conservation projects that you believe in? You should if you don’t make these donations. I don’t know what floats your boat, but I think it is important psychologically to donate to organizations that do good things in our world. 

These donations allow a portion of the cosmic blink of our lives to pay it forward. Even if you don’t make a lot of money, a small donation helps you feel connected to our world. If you are particularly blessed by the fruits of your hard work, make that donation bigger. Investing in the charities and religious organizations of our choice gives us significance. Instead of the narcissistic screaming for change, it is an action step.

Your show can unify your community through service. There was a movement that is still going on today by some churches that take a Sunday off from a religious service to spend their day serving their communities. This can be painting an elderly widow’s home, cleaning a park, feeding the homeless, or other things. If you speak to homeless shelters, lots of people want to volunteer on Thanksgiving morning, but not so much in the middle of February. 

So how about a day of service for your radio show? Reach out to a local charity that needs volunteers and make it an all-day affair. Perhaps you can do your show from the homeless shelter. Interview the people who serve the downtrodden every day or interview listeners who donated their day with you? Make it big and use your platform to make someone’s life better.

For those of you who have been doing radio for a decade or less, I have had listeners reach out to me about something that I said on the air 25 years ago. It’s very humbling. Every day you get on the air trying to perform. Heck, have you ever wanted to scream “Is anyone listening?” I have. I had someone reach out to me on Twitter to share a moment that meant so much to him. When those moments happen, I thank them for listening and what an honor it was to impact their memories in such a way. You are making a difference for people every day. 

Your station may broadcast a big charitable event each year. Be involved in every aspect of the planning process. Buy in 100%. When you take full ownership of the station event, your interest will take this fundraiser to the next level. Talk about a way to build goodwill in the community. 

Do you want to create an unbreakable bond? Help a local charity. You will go viral. Take selfies with all of the volunteers and organizers. Put this on your social media. Make it big. Do something that makes a difference. Go to their events and volunteer to do anything. Likely, you will be an emcee, but, if they want you to wrap presents, shovel up some stuff do it. Be a servant. 

In our post-COVID world, I keep reading about disconnection. Civic groups and religious organizations are experiencing a crisis of participation. This is terrible. Our society’s drift into solitude is damaging. Census figures show that the average household size in the USA is about 2.5 people. This means there are a lot of people sitting in a home or apartment alone. These people are disconnected from society. They go to work, go home, and live their solitary life online. Humans are not built for this. Your radio show is a connection for them. By the way: Your community’s average age is probably around 37 years. Think of this. You are a lynchpin for building community. Your station’s charitable events help people belong to something greater than themselves.

You are an influencer. Be a leader. Build a community. Create belonging.

Your charitable activities build a better world. Your radio show and station make a real difference.

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