Before we dive into the radio ratings and look at Nielsen, for a moment, let’s go back 43 years to the 1980 presidential campaign.
The date was October 28th and then-President Jimmy Carter and Republican nominee Ronald Reagan were engaged in their final debate before the election.
After the back-and-forth questions and answers, each candidate was given time for final comments. Reagan asked a question of the American people that resounded and helped him to his victory the next week. It was a simple question: “It might be well if you would ask yourself, are you better off than you were four years ago?”.
My purpose in raising that quote is to ask a modified version of Reagan’s question. In September 2013, Nielsen closed on the acquisition of Arbitron. After 64 years in business, whether as the American Research Bureau or the more familiar Arbitron brand, the company ceased to exist and became part of Nielsen.
Here we are ten years later and to paraphrase Reagan, those of us who use and pay for the company’s services should ask the question: “Are we better off than we were ten years ago?” I’ll offer some thoughts and it’s a question you may want to ponder as well.
Certainly, the radio industry has changed quite a bit in the last ten years. While streaming and podcasting was around ten years ago and SiriusXM was already over ten years old, the biggest streaming competition at the time was Pandora as Spotify had just reached the US in mid-2011. Competition for ears and eyes, while increasing, was nowhere near today’s level. The first Netflix-produced program, House of Cards, debuted in 2013. While high-speed internet penetration was over 70 percent in 2013, it’s over 90 percent today.
In 2013, Arbitron had 48 PPM markets and measured a total of 274 markets in the U.S. and Puerto Rico. Today, Nielsen measures the 48 PPM markets and a total of 246 metros in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, which is probably more a reflection on the state of the industry rather than Nielsen cutting back on measured markets. No markets have chosen to go PPM since the initial 48 were started long ago.
Let’s review the smaller markets. The diary service is well…still the diary service. One big change over the last ten years was the move to continuous diary measurement reporting in the larger diary markets, alias the “book of the month club”. Two book averaging in the smallest markets was already in place in 2013. The other big change has been in the sampling. While Arbitron started measuring cell phone-only households in the diary service in 2009, Nielsen has had to move to an address-based sample frame complete with design weights to adjust for the change in the way households can be reached.
Recently, Nielsen announced that they are working on an online diary, 16 years after Arbitron’s initial attempt to bring an online component to the system. They also announced that you can now do a virtual diary review, something that has been requested for probably the last twenty to thirty years, negating the need to visit beautiful Columbia, Maryland to review what people did (or did not) enter in their diaries.
On the PPM side, progress has been slow as well. The form of the meter underwent a change to a wearable, something akin to a Fitbit, and is being rolled out to the entire panel. While this ends all the jokes about the meter’s similarity to a 1980s-era pager, it probably hasn’t made a serious impact on the quality of measurement.
In the meantime, the quest for full accreditation from the Media Rating Council continues. As of this writing, 30 PPM markets are accredited with 18 still in limbo, including some top ten markets such as New York, San Francisco, and Washington.
The sample size remains too small based on how much listening takes place in each market. At one point, Nielsen announced a ten percent sample increase and then reneged on that pledge, going for eight percent instead, claiming a “business decision”. The client software for the services remains essentially the same as in 2013. It took around five years before the Arbitron logo was updated in the PPM Analysis Tool. Tapscan has been updated from time to time as well as PD Advantage, but I don’t think any observer would suggest that the changes have been major.
Today, we still don’t have a good measure of demographic usage of streaming audio, whether for streamers or for the streams of radio stations. Triton still has the only system around, although Nielsen did try to enter the business around 2016-17. Their system could create demographics, but the industry rejected it, and yet Nielsen holds a patent for digital audio (US patent 10,699,286). I know because my name is on it with three other people.
Speaking of people, how many people has Nielsen let go over the past decade? As I’m writing this, Nielsen has begun another RIF that has changed the career path of a few more of my friends. Gosh, private equity cutting the number of employees…can you imagine?
Have there been PPM positives over the past decade? Let’s give Nielsen credit for the MCEM monitor that lets you know how well your encoding is working in real-time. Also, most PDs swear by the Control Panel Reports that come out ahead of each “monthly” and let you see your results at a more granular level.
Finally, there is the cost of the service. Yes, most everything was less expensive ten years ago, but as you review what you pay for the Nielsen service today compared to a decade ago, are you getting value for your money? If you feel the services you buy are worth the investment, congratulations! If not, ask yourself Reagan’s question, consider your answer, and ask what else you can do.
Let’s meet again next week.
A note: I hope you’ll be at the BNM Summit in Nashville this week. I’ll be attending and hope to meet many of you there.
One of the radio industry’s most respected researchers, Dr. Ed Cohen writes a weekly column for Barrett News Media. His career experiences include serving as VP of Ratings and Research at Cumulus Media, occupying the role of VP of Measurement Innovation at Nielsen Audio, and its predecessor Arbitron. While with Arbitron, Cohen spent five years as the company’s President of Research Policy and Communication, and eight years as VP of Domestic Radio Research. He has also held the title of Vice President of Research for iHeartMedia/Clear Channel, and held research positions for the National Association of Broadcasters and Birch/Scarborough Research. Dr. Ed always enjoys hearing your thoughts so please feel free to reach him at [email protected].
The Time is Right For Rupert Murdoch to Leave, But Is it Right For Fox News?
Murdoch may have never wanted to retire but there’s probably no reason for him to stay. His work is finished.
The writers of Succession couldn’t write the script we saw come into full display on Thursday. Out of nowhere, one of the most consequential media leaders of our time decided to resign. Rupert Murdoch will ride off into the sunset having left a legacy that has changed media and the state of our democracy forever.
Rupert Murdoch has elected presidents, changed mindsets, and caused hysteria and pandemonium for billions of people over the course of his career. It may not be hyperbolic to say he is one of the few media titans who could’ve had a direct impact on your personal life. Whether you love him or hate him, he was successful at the machine he wanted to create. He has decisively been a shadow emperor of the Western world for the past 20-40 years.
Because of the blueprint he has set in stone, don’t expect Fox News to ever change, even if he isn’t at the helm any longer. The fact is that numbers don’t lie. Fox News commands retransmission fees that are comparable to ESPN, TNT, and the USA Network without carrying any live sporting events. It is one of Fox’s biggest revenue generators despite losing an epic lawsuit to Dominion. It is one of the networks keeping the cable bundle alive and will help prolong it as much as possible because of its existing base.
Speaking of its base, the fact that it has a base in the first place speaks volumes. Fox News has something every other network on television only envies: super fans. There have been pitfalls along the way over the past three or four years but in general, Fox News finds a way to consistently beat its opponents in the demo as well as in overall viewers.
The network has had to switch out hosts for various reasons over the past couple of years but because of its formula of storytelling and team building, viewers don’t leave in droves.
It may not be journalism but it is the perfect way to keep allegiances and it has worked for Fox. Whether it was his tabloids, his syndicated shows, or his news network, Rupert Murdoch has always insisted on creating an environment of “Us vs. Them” for a group of people whose unique diversity is often underestimated. Murdoch has consistently found a way to turn anger and fear into dollars and if it ain’t broke, why fix the Fox?
The successor taking over for Rupert Murdoch also isn’t an unfamiliar seed of discomfort and madness. Lachlan Murdoch has had a say and has been in discussions about Fox’s direction for decades. Some reports say that his own way of thinking is to the right of his father. If there is any child of Rupert’s who supports the path of destruction and illusion that Fox News has created over time, it’s Lachlan.
One of the few problems that Fox may face is purely logistical. It has been reported that Lachlan enjoys living in Australia more than the United States. Operating a television behemoth from another continent could be risky, especially after the behemoth has allowed anchors to vomit election lies on screen and allegedly commit sexual assault off-screen. But that shouldn’t affect the network’s ability to operate because Lachlan has already been serving as co-chair even before this week’s announcement.
One of the biggest reasons you shouldn’t expect Fox to change is because they’re the only network that has broken the code. Newsmax, Megyn Kelly, Glenn Beck, and Tucker Carlson have tried or are trying. But they haven’t been successful. They achieved a level of prosperity in their own right but their numbers and margins of profitability are nowhere close to what Fox News makes. Their concurrent reach cannot even be compared.
The closest rival that has been able to penetrate some sort of mainstream relevance, although exclusively online, is The Daily Wire. And yet even with Ben Shapiro’s respective empire, it will be hard to match what Fox makes because of the business model Fox falls under. There isn’t any imminent competition that could drag Fox down and truly challenge the amount of viewers they receive or the kind of money they make.
Murdoch may have never wanted to retire but there’s probably no reason for him to stay. His work is finished. His worldview has a daily effect on the lives of billions. As the business models for media continue to change, it’s better to leave at the top than to try to solve the next problem.
Titans like Bob Iger and Mark Thompson could look back at Murdoch’s decision years ago and wonder why they didn’t leave as a champion as he did. Unless there was a pie coming at his face during a hearing in the United Kingdom, one of the biggest strengths of Rupert Murdoch is that he always knew when the time was right.
Jessie Karangu is a weekly columnist for BNM, and graduate of the University of Maryland with a bachelor’s degree in journalism. He was born and raised in Baltimore, Maryland but comes from Kenyan roots. Jessie has had a passion for news and sports media and the world of television since he was a child. His career has included stints with USA Today, Tegna, Sinclair Broadcast Group and Sightline Media. He also previously wrote a weekly column for our sports media brand, Barrett Sports Media. Jessie can be found on Twitter @JMKTVShow.
What News/Talk Can Learn From A Sports Host Like Mad Dog Russo
How are you taking the news that is relevant in our space and making it stand out to the audience and making it relatable to your audience?
Sports media had one of its best viral moments in recent memory this week when Chris “Mad Dog” Russo shared his Saturday college football plans with the audience of ESPN’s First Take.
Russo was talking with Stephen A. Smith and Marcus Spears about this weekend’s game between Colorado and Oregon when Molly Qerim told Russo to share with the rest of the panel his plans for the weekend.
Russo went on to describe his Saturday afternoon, blow-by-blow, which included a cocktail and “half a THC gummy” for the noon ET games. After the first slate of games, Russo planned to make a call to his bookie, place a $10,000 bet on Colorado to beat Oregon, and then another cocktail, along with the “other half” of his gummy.
It was pure entertainment from Russo. He wasn’t trying too hard, it wasn’t over the top, but it was brilliant content.
The clip has been viewed millions of times since it aired because it was real, relatable, honest, funny, self-deprecating and delivered perfectly.
Only a handful would have seen or heard this clip, other than those watching the show in real-time, had they just done the standard “media talking heads break down the big college football game of the weekend”. But to Russo’s credit, he likely understands in today’s media landscape that the die-hards who want a full Oregon-Colorado breakdown can get that in a ton of different places in 2023. What’s he going to bring that’s unique, different, and stands out? And that’s exactly what he did.
As it pertains to news/talk radio, or news media at large, how do you have that Mad Dog-Gummy moment? It doesn’t need to literally be you talking about taking gummies before the next GOP debate on September 27th (although anything that helps get through one of those disasters would be welcomed). But how are you taking the news that is relevant in our space and making it stand out to the audience and making it relatable to your audience?
While it’s anecdotal, whenever I bump into KCMO listeners, the biggest feedback on the show is not my takes on Trump, Biden, Kansas City city council, or anything else for that matter, it’s, “I like when you talk about your girls.”
I have two daughters, four and two, who are absolutely incredible, entertaining, and yes, nightmare toddlers sometimes. When it’s relevant and topical, I will bring them up. I talk about them far less than the news, but they’re the “topic” that always gets the organic feedback.
Like Russo’s moment, it gives the audience insight into who we are as people, beyond what we think about the topic(s) of the day.
This doesn’t mean that a four-hour show should be about your weekend plans or your kids throwing up in their beds at night (although I could rip off a few of those stories and kill a few segments). But picking and choosing those moments will help you stand out in an overcrowded media landscape where the audience has options galore and needs more reasons than ever to come back to you and your show.
Give them insight into not just you the host/personality, but you the person.
I can’t think of the last time cable news or news talk had a viral moment like Mad Dog Russo. But maybe you can be next.
Pete Mundo is the morning show host and program director for KCMO in Kansas City. Previously, he was a fill-in host nationally on FOX News Radio and CBS Sports Radio, while anchoring for WFAN, WCBS News Radio 880, and Bloomberg Radio. Pete was also the sports and news director for Omni Media Group at K-1O1/Z-92 in Woodward, Oklahoma. He’s also the owner of the Big 12-focused digital media outlet Heartland College Sports. To interact, find him on Twitter @PeteMundo.
A News/Talk Radio Autopsy After the BNM Summit
The news/talk audience is getting older. This is somewhat self-inflicted. We are still doing our shows in the same template Rush Limbaugh innovated in 1987. Time to change it up.
After the inaugural BNM Summit, I was more excited about our industry after the two-day event. Radio in many ways is a solitary pursuit.
Teamwork is sometimes not a factor in a morning show with a cast. You walk into the studio, put on the headphones, turn on the mic and go. I needed some excitement, some good news, and the chance to meet new friends and renew longtime relationships. I got it.
As an industry, we have been pummeled by bad headlines: some of which are self-inflicted, and some are challenges for our future. If you believe the headlines, smelting lead would be a better career choice. I don’t believe that, and you shouldn’t either. While smelting lead seems like an exciting career other than the whole lead poisoning thing, perhaps that is better than radio station break room coffee.
Have you ever considered how bad radio station coffee is? I don’t drink it. I drink a pot of my own before I strut into the office. Perhaps, it is time to call any reputable health inspector in to inspect that thicker than tar swill.
Radio is a terrific profession. How many jobs provide more laughs than broadcasting? It is fun. I have worked a bit outside the radio industry. Real-world jobs suck. Our stations develop awesome advertising campaigns for clients. Why not us? We don’t publicize our strengths. Podcasts are great, but when did a podcast raise money for the local foster children? When did a podcast show up at a client’s office with a smile and donuts? TikTok? Those Chinese Communist bastards are poisoning our kids. YouTube? Cool content, but the Google-owned platform is as likely to build commonalities with your neighbors as a lion is likely to lay down with a lamb.
Radio is a cool job. One where you can make a difference. It’s not exactly like Mother Theresa…. but it’s better than being an influencer on Instagram.
I am ranting.
You know who I am sick of? The radio coroner gang. Radio still reaches a majority of the American public. Your local big network TV affiliates may reach less than 40% of the public. They are no longer a big deal. Don’t give them any respect. Those jerks don’t deserve it, except for that pretty reporter who would be lucky to be my next wife. I know that I am old enough to be her dad, but hey, old dudes need love, too.
Radio is vital and needed. Radio needs to look itself in the mirror and say “We are essential”. I was in the room in Nashville with men and women who see a future. The BNM Summit delivered that.
By the way, the brother and sisterhood at the BNM Summit was strong. I haven’t been hugged this much since a family reunion. I wish that you could have been there. It was amazing. I really was pumped up. We matter. You matter. Your ideas are important.
We have challenges. We need to address issues with Gen Z and the generations to follow them. Radio does have issues with innovation. We run the same clocks that we did in 1970. We sweep the corners, which is stupid and does not reflect actual radio listening. If you are in a PPM market and are sweeping the corners, reevaluate your tune-ins per hour. Look at that carefully. So, your host comes out of the break at :27, and news is at “30. I guarantee your tune-out rate is through the roof.
You need 5 minutes of continuous listening to get credit. A listener is as likely to start listening at 23 minutes past the hour than almost any other time. Yet, we still sweep the corners. It’s insane. You may not like PPM. It is a fair assessment, but adapt or die. We have not adapted to PPM and radio has been using this technology for well over a decade.
The news/talk audience is getting older. This is somewhat self-inflicted. We are still doing our shows in the same template Rush Limbaugh innovated in 1987. Time to change it up. PPM gives us tools. If you delight in being a political insider, you are going to demo old. Go to a political event. It is geezer-rific. Talk about the interests of a 45-year-old. You can beat this. You have the tools, you have the data, and you have the talent.
I was watching a YouTube video on East St. Louis. That city in Illinois is now one of the most violent places in the USA. It was not always that way. East St. Louis was once a vibrant community with a bustling downtown, strong industry, and a great future. The community got complacent, and the employers started to leave. The city was not focused on growing and it has become a shell of the great place it was at one time.
Radio needs to look at that. What is next? Where is the innovation? How do we change the momentum? It’s all up to us. There are thought leaders in our industry reading this. These are brilliant people. I don’t claim to have the answers, but I know where we need to focus.
Being in the room with amazing leaders in the radio industry brought me more excitement. The BNM Summit was exactly what I needed. I could not be more enthusiastic about our future. Am I naïve? Perhaps. Do I understand the power of radio? Absolutely.
The power is in your hands. May every moment on your radio station essential.
Peter Wilkinson Thiele is a weekly columnist for Barrett News Media. He currently serves as the program director, and morning host of Newstalk KZRG in Joplin, MO. Additionally, Peter has held programming roles in New York City, San Francisco, Little Rock, Greenville and Hunstville. He has also worked as a host, account executive and producer in Minneapolis, and San Antonio. You can reach him on Twitter at @PeterThiele.